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population projection

  An estimate of future population size or composition based on the extrapolation of past demographic trends. A distinction may be drawn between a projection and a forecast; the latter is the term used when demographic variables are set in a more general socio-economic framework. The simplest form of projection is that based on extrapolation of the past growth of the total population, but modern projections tend to take into account detailed trends in fertility, mortality and migration. (PEO)

Suggested Reading Lutz, W. 1996: The future population of the world. What can we assume today? Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Plane, D.A. and Rogerson, P.A. 1994: The geographical analysis of population. New York and Chichester: Wiley, ch. 6.



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